Vacation Rental Industry Outlook 2027: The OTA Reversal

KeyData (also written Key Data) released its 2027 Vacation Rental Industry Outlook, an annual survey of US professional property managers, in the first week of October 2026. Trade coverage led with the optimism: 76.8% of managers expect revenue to grow in 2027, according to ShortTermRentalz on October 8, 2026.

The finding that matters more for a host sits lower in the report. A year ago, managers planning to cut their reliance on online travel agencies (OTAs, the booking platforms such as Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com) outnumbered those planning to add to it. This year the order flipped: 25.1% plan to rely more on OTAs and 17.8% plan to rely less, according to VRM Intel's October 5, 2026 writeup of the survey.

That reversal lands in the same season both large US channels changed what they charge hosts. Managers are planning to buy more demand from platforms that just raised the price of it, and the coverage so far has not put those two facts side by side or run the cost. This post does both.

Key facts

• 76.8% of surveyed US property managers expect revenue growth in 2027, 65.2% expect occupancy growth and 55.5% expect growth in average daily rate, according to ShortTermRentalz (October 8, 2026).
• 25.1% plan to rely more on OTAs in 2027 and 17.8% plan to rely less, according to VRM Intel (October 5, 2026). In the 2026 edition, 11% planned to increase and 19% planned to reduce, according to KeyData's own report.
• Net intent moved from minus 8 points to plus 7.3 points, a 15.3 point swing in one year (our arithmetic, shown below).
• Airbnb's single host fee is 15.5% for most hosts, and Vrbo moves hosts to a 12% commission on October 29, 2026.
• The survey drew 392 US based property managers, according to PhocusWire (October 7, 2026).

What KeyData's 2027 outlook found

The headline numbers describe a confident industry. Beyond the 76.8% expecting revenue growth, 64.2% expect more competition for guests, and 89% report using AI for at least one task in the first year the survey asked about it. PhocusWire reports that the revenue figure is up from 69% in the 2026 report.

Regulation shows up as a cost of doing business, not a crisis. Per ShortTermRentalz, 39.5% of managers cite strict permitting or licensing as a challenge, 33.9% cite rising occupancy taxes and tourism fees, 28.2% cite pushback from residents or associations, and 28.5% report no major regulatory challenge.

What the report does not show openly

A word on sourcing, because it limits how hard anyone should lean on these numbers. KeyData's report page is a gated download that prints no figures, no sample size and no field dates. Every 2027 number in this post traces to the trade writeups by VRM Intel, ShortTermRentalz and PhocusWire, not to a table we could read ourselves.

VRM Intel also flags that some subgroups are small. One cross tab rests on 20 respondents, and the outlet says size and region cuts should be read as directional. Treat the breakdowns below the same way.

The OTA reversal: from net minus 8 to net plus 7.3

Here is the arithmetic. In KeyData's 2026 outlook, 67% of managers expected to rely on OTAs about the same, 19% planned to reduce reliance and 11% expected to increase it. Net intent: 11 minus 19, or minus 8 points.

In the 2027 outlook, 25.1% plan to rely more and 17.8% plan to rely less. Net intent: 25.1 minus 17.8, or plus 7.3 points. The swing from minus 8 to plus 7.3 is 15.3 points.

Measured reservations have been moving the same direction. Haven Research on booking beyond the OTA covers Key Data's professionally managed US panel, where Airbnb reached half of Q1 2026 reservations and direct fell to 23%.

Nearly all of that movement came from one side. The share pulling back barely changed, from 19% to 17.8%. The share leaning in went from 11% to 25.1%, which is 2.28 times last year's figure (25.1 divided by 11). Subtracting both camps from 100 leaves about 57% in neither, down from 67% a year earlier.

The smallest managers lead the shift

VRM Intel breaks the planned increase out by company size: extra small managers 27.8%, large 26.6%, small 26.0%, extra large 25.0% and medium 22.5%. KeyData's 2026 report defined extra small as 0 to 29 units, and PhocusWire's coverage of the 2027 edition uses the same band.

That is the group closest to a host with a handful of properties, and it is the group most inclined to add OTA exposure. The same writeup reports the platforms managers use: Vrbo at 88%, Airbnb at 79% and Booking.com at 67%.

PhocusWire quotes the report's own reading of the change: "Instead, the 2027 responses point toward a more pragmatic view of distribution." Pragmatism has a price, and it changed this fall.

What more OTA reliance costs after this fall's fee changes

Airbnb has been moving hosts from a split fee, in which most hosts paid 3% and guests paid a separate service fee, to a single fee deducted entirely from the host payout. Airbnb's help center puts that single fee at 15.5% for most hosts. The wave covering independent hosts outside the EU, including the US, landed on September 15, 2026, according to Hostfully's timeline, and the fee applies to the booking subtotal: the nightly rate plus host set charges such as cleaning, before taxes.

Vrbo follows on October 29, 2026, when it moves hosts to a single 12% commission, replacing roughly 8% for pay per booking hosts without software and 5% for software connected hosts, according to RentalScaleUp. Vrbo's host terms calculate commission on the total rental amount including mandatory host fees, excluding taxes. Our earlier posts cover the Vrbo 12% repricing math and the Airbnb repricing checklist in full.

The markup is a division, not a subtraction

To net the same amount after a percentage fee, divide by one minus the fee.

• Airbnb at 15.5%: 1 divided by 0.845 is 1.1834, so the price has to rise 18.34% to net the pre-fee amount.
• Vrbo at 12%: 1 divided by 0.88 is 1.1364, so the price has to rise 13.64%.

On a booking where you want 1,500 dollars in your account, that means listing at 1,775.15 dollars on Airbnb (1,500 divided by 0.845) and 1,704.55 dollars on Vrbo (1,500 divided by 0.88). The two channels no longer net the same at the same price: Airbnb needs a price 4.14% above Vrbo's to pay you equally (0.88 divided by 0.845 is 1.0414).

A worked example of leaning in

Take an operator with 300,000 dollars in gross bookings a year who shifts 10 more points of that volume onto OTAs. That is 30,000 dollars of bookings moving channels.

• Routed through Airbnb at 15.5%: 30,000 times 0.155 is 4,650 dollars in host fees.
• Routed through Vrbo at 12%: 30,000 times 0.12 is 3,600 dollars.

These figures are illustrative, and they are gross of whatever the displaced channel cost in card processing, software and marketing. A 10 point channel shift is a four figure annual decision at this size, and it scales linearly.

Revenue confidence without rate confidence

The second thread in the report explains why the channel question got bigger this year. Revenue optimism (76.8%) runs 21.3 points ahead of rate optimism (55.5%). KeyData's Sally Henry, vice president of market intelligence and insights, put it directly in ShortTermRentalz's coverage: "Revenue confidence sits well ahead of rate confidence."

Among the smallest managers the gap is wider. VRM Intel reports that 78% of extra small managers expect revenue growth, while on ADR 42% expect modest growth, 36% expect flat rates and about 16% expect a decline.

Revenue is rate times booked nights. If rate is flat, growth has to come from more nights, and more nights have to come from somewhere: a channel, an ad, a repeat guest. When those added nights arrive through a platform, each incremental dollar nets 84.5 cents on Airbnb or 88 cents on Vrbo. Volume led growth makes the channel mix decision larger, not smaller.

What a 1 to 5 property host should take from a manager survey

First, the limits. This is a survey of professional managers, not individual hosts, and it measures plans, not behavior. Managers also answer to homeowners. VRM Intel reports that 46.2% of managers increasing OTA reliance cite listing visibility as a factor in keeping owners, against 36.8% of everyone else. A host who owns the property has no client asking why the home is not on every site.

With that said, the smallest operators in the survey look the most like Haven's readers, and they are the ones leaning in. Three checks are worth running before you follow them.

1. Net rate per channel after fees. For each platform, take last quarter's payouts and divide by booked nights. Compare that figure, not the listed price. If you have not repriced since September 15 (Airbnb) or do not plan to by October 29 (Vrbo), the net figure has already dropped or is about to.
2. Share of repeat guests who rebook through a platform. Every returning guest who books again on an OTA pays the commission a second time on a relationship you already earned. Count them. If the number is above zero, that is the cheapest volume available to you, and our direct booking strategy for small hosts covers how to move it.
3. Parity language in your platform terms. Vrbo's host terms require that the content you give Vrbo be at least as complete, accurate, current, detailed and favorable as what you make available through other channels. Read the clause before you set a lower rate elsewhere.

None of this argues for leaving the platforms. Most small hosts need them for discovery, which is what the 88% and 79% usage figures reflect. The argument is narrower: adding OTA share in 2027 is a pricing decision, and the price went up this fall. A commission free direct channel, such as the branded booking sites Haven builds, is one place to send the guests who already know your property.

What to watch next

Two things will show whether the stated plans hold. The first is behavior after October 29, 2026, once Vrbo's 12% is on every payout statement and managers see a full month at the new rate. The second is the gap between small host and manager sentiment: the PriceLabs Global Host Report, which surveys a different and smaller scale population, is the natural comparison point.

FAQ

What is the KeyData Vacation Rental Industry Outlook?

It is an annual survey of US professional vacation rental property managers published by KeyData, a market data company. The 2027 edition was released in early October 2026 and drew 392 US based managers, according to PhocusWire. The report itself is a gated download, so most public figures come from trade press summaries.

Do property managers expect short term rental revenue to grow in 2027?

Most do. According to ShortTermRentalz, 76.8% of surveyed managers expect revenue growth in 2027, 65.2% expect higher occupancy and 55.5% expect higher average daily rates. PhocusWire reports the revenue figure is up from 69% in the 2026 edition.

Are managers moving toward or away from OTAs in 2027?

Toward, on net. VRM Intel reports that 25.1% plan to rely more on OTAs in 2027 and 17.8% plan to rely less. In KeyData's 2026 outlook the figures were 11% and 19%, so net intent moved from minus 8 points to plus 7.3 points.

How much do Airbnb and Vrbo charge hosts as of fall 2026?

Airbnb's single host fee is 15.5% for most hosts, according to Airbnb's help center. Vrbo moves hosts to a 12% commission on October 29, 2026, according to RentalScaleUp's report of Vrbo's notice to hosts. To net the same payout, a host has to raise prices 18.34% on Airbnb and 13.64% on Vrbo.