Short Term Rental Occupancy 2026: The 15% Jump, Checked

US short term rental occupancy averaged 53.6% in September 2026, and revenue per available rental rose 15.3% from a year earlier to $136, according to AirDNA's U.S. Review for September 2026, published October 8, 2026. On its face that is the strongest monthly reading of the year.

It is also mostly a calendar effect. Labor Day weekend sat in August in 2025 and in September in 2026, which is the same reason AirDNA's August review showed revenue per rental slipping 0.6%. Put the two months together and the gain is closer to 6% than 15%.

That difference matters this week, because holiday rates are being set now. As of October 13, 2026, Thanksgiving is 44 days away and Christmas is 73. A host who budgets the rest of the year on September's headline will price against a market that does not exist.

Key facts

• US short term rental occupancy averaged 53.6% in September 2026, up 3.7 percentage points from September 2025, according to AirDNA's review published October 8, 2026.
• September 2026 revenue per available rental (RevPAR) rose 15.3% to $136, and the average daily rate rose 7.2% to $254, per the same review.
• Across August and September 2026 combined, AirDNA reports demand up 2.1%, occupancy up 1.5%, and average daily rate up 4.3%.
• Available listings reached 1.74 million in September 2026, up 1.6% year over year, which AirDNA calls the lowest growth rate since the pandemic.
• As of early October 2026, New Year's bookings were pacing 23.2% ahead of last year and Christmas 7.7% ahead, against a 12.3% pace for the surrounding weeks.

Why did September look so strong and August so weak?

Labor Day was Monday, September 1 in 2025, so the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights of the holiday weekend were August 29 to 31. In 2026 the holiday fell on September 7, and every one of those nights landed in September. One of the biggest leisure weekends of the year moved from one month's ledger to the other's.

AirDNA says this directly. Its September review states that August demand fell 2.5% and September demand rose 8.1% "because Labor Day weekend moved from August in 2025 to September in 2026," and that September's gain "is largely due to the Labor Day shift." The August review, published September 16, 2026, called that month's weak headline "calendar timing, not softening demand."

The headline checks out against itself

RevPAR is occupancy multiplied by average daily rate (ADR), the average price of a booked night. Occupancy of 53.6% times an ADR of $254 is $136.14, which matches the $136 AirDNA printed.

The year over year change also reconciles. Occupancy of 53.6% is up 3.7 points from about 49.9%, a 7.4% increase (53.6 divided by 49.9 is 1.074). Multiply that by the 7.2% ADR gain and you get 1.074 times 1.072, or 1.151: the 15.3% headline, within rounding. The number is real. It is just measuring a holiday weekend against an ordinary one.

The two months together

AirDNA's own combined figures for August and September are far calmer: demand up 2.1%, which it calls the fastest pace since October 2025, occupancy up 1.5%, and ADR up 4.3%, all from the September review. The review does not publish a combined RevPAR figure, so we built one.

Our estimate of combined RevPAR

This is Haven's calculation from AirDNA's published monthly figures, not an AirDNA number.

• September 2025: $136 divided by 1.153 is about $117.95.
• August 2025: August 2026 RevPAR was $166.01, down 0.6%, per the August review. $166.01 divided by 0.994 is about $167.01.
• Two months of 2026, weighted by days: ($166.01 times 31, plus $136 times 30) divided by 61 is about $151.25.
• Two months of 2025, same weighting: ($167.01 times 31, plus $117.95 times 30) divided by 61 is about $142.88.
• Change: $151.25 divided by $142.88 is 1.059, a gain of about 5.9%.

A second route gives the same answer. AirDNA's combined occupancy gain of 1.5% and ADR gain of 4.3% multiply to 1.015 times 1.043, or 1.059.

Two caveats. The estimate ignores the small change in listing count between the two months, and AirDNA has since restated at least one August figure (demand was first reported down 2.3% and now appears as down 2.5%), so the August inputs may have moved slightly. Neither changes the conclusion: the planning number is about 6%, not 15%.

In dollars: a host who earned $4,000 last September and assumes 15.3% growth going forward expects $4,612 on a comparable $4,000 month. At 5.9% the figure is $4,236. The $376 gap is revenue the calendar produced once and will not produce again in November.

Where is the pricing power coming from?

Mostly from supply. Available listings grew 1.6% year over year in both August and September 2026, to 1.74 million in September, and AirDNA describes that as the lowest rate since the pandemic. New listings fell 1.0% in September.

The review ties this to borrowing costs. The 30 year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.66% at the end of August to 7.28% for the week ending October 1, 2026, citing Freddie Mac, and AirDNA says it has previously found a lag of about six months between mortgage rate moves and changes in supply. Its conclusion is that new listing growth "will likely stay subdued for at least the next six months."

Existing operators used the room. AirDNA's Repeat Rent Index, which tracks price changes on the same listings and so strips out changes in the mix of properties, rose 7.8% in September and 6.5% across August and September. That is above the 4.3% combined ADR gain, which means hosts already in the market raised rates faster than the blended average suggests.

For a small host the reading is plain. Demand is growing at about 2%. Rates are growing at 4% to 7% because fewer competitors are arriving, and that condition depends on mortgage rates, not on anything a host controls.

Who is growing and who is not

The national average hides a split by location. Over August and September, AirDNA reports coastal resort demand up 0.9%, mountain and lake demand up 0.6%, and urban demand down 0.4%, and says travelers "appear to have favored homier locations over the past two months."

Rate growth was more even: coastal resorts up 5.4%, mountain and lake up 5.1%, urban up 4.8% over the two months. And momentum persisted. Markets that led ADR growth in 2025 gained a median 7.6%, against 2.7% for last year's laggards, per the review.

These are averages across 1.74 million listings. They describe the country, not any one market, and a host's own calendar is better evidence than a national median.

What does the pacing say about the holidays?

Pacing compares nights already booked for a future date with nights booked for the same date at this point last year. AirDNA reports nights on the books ahead of last year in every month from October 2026 (4.0%) through March 2027 (14.0%).

It also tells readers not to take that at face value. Lead times have lengthened since March, and in the review's words, "when they lengthen, pacing overstates future demand." The pace typically slows 60 to 90 days before the stay date. AirDNA says October "could be reasonably close to final demand growth," November "may be somewhat overstated," and the rest "looks encouraging but likely speculative."

With that caveat, the three holidays read differently:

• Thanksgiving: pacing 15.2% ahead, against 15.5% for the surrounding weeks. No holiday premium in the growth rate so far. The outliers are college football towns such as Oxford, Mississippi (up 297.2%) and College Station, Texas (up 173.3%).
• Christmas: Wednesday to Saturday bookings are 7.7% ahead of 2025, below the 12.3% pace of the surrounding weeks.
• New Year's: the same days are 23.2% ahead, nearly double that 12.3% pace. AirDNA links this to New Year's Day falling on a Friday.

Ski markets add a wrinkle. Across the 23 markets AirDNA tracks, median lead time shortened by 11 days, from 176 to 165, after last season's snow drought in the West. Pacing as of October 4, 2026 was 7.1% ahead overall, with Eastern markets up 20.0% and Western markets up 3.6%. Western ski guests are booking later, so a thin winter calendar in October means less than it did a year ago.

What should a small host do with this?

Compare two months, not one. Add your August and September 2026 revenue and set it against the same two months of 2025. If you are up 5% to 6%, you are tracking the national figure. If September alone is up 15% and the pair is flat, you gained nothing but a holiday weekend.

Hold rate on New Year's. A week pacing at nearly twice the surrounding pace does not need a discount in mid October. If you use minimum stays, the Wednesday to Saturday window AirDNA measures is the one to protect.

Watch Christmas before cutting. Pacing 7.7% ahead is still ahead of last year. It is behind neighboring weeks, which argues for patience and a check in early November, not a price cut today.

Set your floor before software moves it. Pricing tools and platform prompts respond to the same pacing data, including the overstated part. Decide the lowest rate you will accept first; our guide on how to set your price floor first walks through the math, and our look at what AirDNA's pricing engine has to earn back covers the cost side.

Fill soft weeks with people who already know the house. A past guest is the cheapest booking for the Thanksgiving week that is not standing out and the early December dates around it. The rules on emailing past guests differ by where the booking came from, so check what Airbnb allows before sending. This is the practical case for a direct channel: Haven gives hosts a branded booking site with a built in guest CRM and email marketing, so the list of past guests is theirs to use.

What to watch next

AirDNA's October review should arrive around mid November, based on its recent publishing rhythm (September 16 and October 8). The test is whether October's final demand growth lands near the 4.0% pacing figure, as AirDNA expects, and whether the Christmas gap to its benchmark closes. Mortgage rates are the other line to follow: at 7.28%, they are what keeps new supply, and new competition, out of the market.

FAQ

What is the average short term rental occupancy rate in 2026?

US short term rental occupancy averaged 53.6% in September 2026, up 3.7 percentage points from a year earlier, according to AirDNA's review published October 8, 2026. August 2026 averaged 57.8%, per AirDNA's August review. Both are national monthly averages, and individual markets vary widely.

Did short term rental revenue really rise 15% in September 2026?

RevPAR did rise 15.3% to $136, but AirDNA attributes most of the gain to Labor Day weekend moving from August in 2025 to September in 2026. Combining August and September, Haven estimates RevPAR rose about 5.9%, a calculation from AirDNA's published monthly figures. AirDNA's own combined figures show demand up 2.1% and ADR up 4.3%.

Is short term rental supply still growing?

Yes, but slowly. Available US listings reached 1.74 million in September 2026, up 1.6% year over year, which AirDNA calls the lowest growth rate since the pandemic. New listings fell 1.0%, and AirDNA expects subdued growth for at least six months because mortgage rates rose to 7.28%.

Are holiday vacation rental bookings ahead of last year?

As of early October 2026, yes for all three major holidays, by different margins. Thanksgiving is pacing 15.2% ahead, Christmas 7.7%, and New Year's 23.2%, per AirDNA. AirDNA cautions that longer booking lead times this year make pacing overstate final demand.